The effects of the unemployment insurance payroll tax on wages, employment, claims and denials

Following a 13-year period when all employers in Washington paid the same unemployment insurance (UI) tax rate, Washington was forced to adopt an experience-rated tax system in 1985. We use this ‘‘natural experiment’’ to explore both tax incidence and the effects of experience rating. We find that industry average tax rates are largely passed on to workers through lower earnings. However, our estimates imply that a firm can shift much less of the difference between its tax rate and the industry average rate. Our results also indicate that experience rating reduces turnover and UI claims, and increases claim denials.  2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.